Snow Plow News sat down with Stephen Latin-Kasper to unpack the key takeaways, surprising patterns, and what it all means for snow and ice professionals across the U.S.
Stephen Latin-Kasper, a seasoned analyst with over 25 years of experience turning raw data into strategic insights for the work truck industry, recently completed an in-depth analysis to create a mathematical model that predicts plow mount registration potential out to 2050. To learn more about his key findings and surprising discoveries, Snow Plow News interviewed Stephen about the process and his report.
After months analyzing NOAA datasets, model-year sales data, and economic factors, he uncovered several surprising—and in some cases, myth-busting—observations. In our interview, we asked Latin-Kasper to share the insights that stood out most during the process.
Here’s what he had to say:
Key Takeaways from the Snowfall and Plow-Mount Forecast Report
1 . Rethinking the La Niña Assumption
After hearing for years that La Ninas are what matter regarding plow sales, it was surprising to find out that the data don’t support the “common knowledge.” In fact, there isn’t even that much more snowfall during La Ninas than there is during El Ninos. The three variables that matter more are temperature, average age of the plows, and the economic cycle. This can be seen in the model-year data.
2 . Temperature Is the Game-Changer
What wasn’t surprising is that the data confirmed the idea that temperature will be the most important factor going forward regarding sales of snow and ice equipment, and snow removal services. However, it was surprising to find that the average Winter temperatures for the Northwest, Northeast and Southern regions of the snowbelt are already at or near 32 degrees in Winter.
3 . Weather Data, and the People Behind It
While compiling snowfall and temperature data, I became quite familiar with the NOAA data compilation system. I now have far more respect for meteorologists. I also learned how important weather stations are, and by association, the weather station observers/data-compilers. Many of them are volunteers. All of us who are interested in weather data owe them a debt of gratitude.
4 . Geography Can Skew the Forecast
The amount of difference between regional and state snowfall and temperature is substantial. Therefore, it is important to note that, while the forecast equation developed for the report is highly accurate, it is not as accurate for some places as it is for others. For some report users, it will be worthwhile to tweak the equation to make it more geographically specific. If you need help with that, contact CMPF.
5 . How Climate Change Entered the Equation
Lastly, I was surprised at how quickly what was expected to be a simple analysis of the market for pickups with plow-mounts, turned into a report on how climate change is likely to impact the U.S. snow and ice equipment and snow removal industries. After years of experience analyzing data, it is still fascinating to find that you don’t know where the data will take you until you dig into it.
Want to Learn More?
The 2025-50 Forecast of U.S. Snowfall and Registrations of Pickups with Plow-Mounts report was built by Stephen Latin-Kasper of Coherent Market Planning and Forecasting, LLC (CMPF).
Excerpts from the study:
The report quantifies the potential U.S. market size for plow-mounts installed on pickup trucks as of 2025, and a forecast through 2050.
The report utilizes pickups with plow-mounts registration data from the 2021 Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (VIUS) published by the U.S. Department of Transportation in January 2024. There were a total of 1.1 million pickups with plow-mounts registered in 2021, which was an increase of 47.9% from the 717,000 units registered in 2002. 2021 was compared to 2002 because funding for the VIUS was eliminated prior to conducting the 2007 VIUS, and DOT didn’t include funding for the next one until 2020.
What is in the report?
The report includes an 18-page document file that explains and provides insights into the data presented in four spreadsheet files. The primary file includes the plow-mount data, which is segmented by state, weight class and model year. An analysis of snowfall by model-year shows clearly that variables other than snowfall impact the number of plow-mounts and plows sold and registered in any given year. The other spreadsheet files all contain snowfall and temperature data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
How deep is the data?
CMPF analyzed NOAA snowfall and temperature data for the Winters of 1969-70 through 2024-25 for 44 metro areas in 25 states. The analysis included Winter (December through February) snowfall and temperature data compiled from NOAA’s Applied Climate Information System (ACIS). The snowbelt was segmented into six regions: Northwest, Midwest Plains, West Great Lakes, East Great Lakes, Northeast, and Southern Snowbelt. Each of the regions is comprised of multiple cities. The ACIS collects and compiles data from thousands of weather stations on a daily basis and publishes it in numerous ways. The report includes CMPFs own compilation of specific cities data, most of which came from airport weather stations, because they tended to be the most consistent over the chosen (last 50 years) time span.
The data make it possible to determine how much snowfall is likely to change per one-degree of temperature change. That relationship is used along with a Great Lakes temperature forecast from the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program, (GLISA) and population data from the U.S. Census Bureau to develop a forecast model for snowfall and pickups with plow-mounts registrations. The forecast equation is referenced in figure 2 as the “predictor variable,” but there are actually three variables included in the equation ((snowfall / temperature) x population). Each of the dots in the graph represent one of 19 snowbelt states included in the model.
Linear regression was used to develop the model since more complex equations were found to be no better. As explained in the report, the predictor variable explains 86% of the change in plow-mount registrations over time. It can be applied to 1999-2050 GLISA “low” (3º F) and “high” (6º F) temperature forecast scenarios to predict snowfall and pickups with plow-mounts registrations by snowbelt region, state and place. The report uses data for the Northeast region of the U.S. snowbelt to demonstrate how to use the model.
In the low and high GLISA scenarios, it is quite clear that the market for snow plows and other types of snow and ice equipment will shrink between now and 2050. As temperature increases, municipal fleets throughout the snowbelt, (especially those in the Southern and Northwest regions) will have to deal with fewer snow events, and more freezing rain events. That will lead to fleets changing their mix of capital equipment, including trucks. Just one example of this is the use of more tractors to pull tank trailers filled with brine. To be clear, the need for this will be widespread. By 2050, Pittsburgh could be part of the redefined Southern region of the snowbelt.
Manufacturers and distributors of plows and other snow and ice equipment, municipal fleet managers, landscape companies, and independent owner/operators of pickups that provide snow and ice removal services will find this report valuable.
To explore more insights or connect with Stephen Latin-Kasper about customized forecasting support, visit his website here.
Stay tuned to Snow Plow News for continued coverage of the trends, forecasts, and expert analysis shaping the future of the snow and ice management industry.
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