Forecast accuracy is slipping due to quiet cuts in critical weather data. Find out what’s changing — and how it’s affecting your snow operations.
Winter storm planning has always required accuracy. But lately, contractors across the country have noticed more missed starts, surprise changes in snow totals, and frustrating inconsistencies between forecasts. It’s not just your imagination — and it’s not just a glitch in the app.
Quiet but serious cuts to weather data collection have begun to impact the accuracy of the very models that power the National Weather Service (NWS) and nearly every consumer weather app. The ripple effects are landing squarely in industries like snow and ice removal — where timing and totals matter most.
What’s Actually Being Cut?
“Upper-air observations like weather balloon launches are a critical but dwindling source of atmospheric data.”
The forecast you see in your app (or even on the evening news) starts with real-world data: temperatures, winds, humidity, and pressure gathered from satellites, radar, ground stations, and weather balloons.
But due to staffing issues and budget restrictions, the National Weather Service has been unable to maintain consistent upper-air observations, especially routine balloon launches. These vertical snapshots of the atmosphere are crucial to initializing computer models with an accurate picture of the environment.
“These data gaps, although subtle to the public, are leading to degraded model performance, particularly in severe and rapidly changing weather situations.”
— NBC News, April 2024
Why the Cuts Are Happening
In recent months, the National Weather Service (NWS) has faced significant operational challenges due to budgetary constraints and staffing reductions. These issues have been exacerbated by initiatives from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which aimed to streamline federal operations. As a result, the NWS has had to suspend or reduce weather balloon launches at several sites across the country, including locations in Alaska, New York, and Maine.
Weather balloons, or radiosondes, are critical for collecting upper-atmosphere data such as temperature, humidity, and wind profiles. This information feeds into forecasting models, helping meteorologists predict weather patterns with greater accuracy. The reduction in these data collection efforts has led to concerns about the reliability of forecasts from winter to strong spring storms.
“Think of the atmosphere as a complex puzzle. Each weather balloon provides a piece of that puzzle, offering a vertical snapshot of atmospheric conditions. When these pieces are missing, there’s big gaps that must be filled in. It makes everything weaker downstream. It has a big ripple effect. It makes the meteorologists work more challenging. Apps don’t have human input. NWS meteorologists are being cut. So public and free info suffers. This is especially critical for predicting severe weather events, where timely and precise information is paramount” states NorCast Meteorologist Brian Ivey.
The Impact on Forecast Accuracy
“Forecast models like the GFS simulate future weather using real-world data — but poor inputs lead to poor results.”
Even though the models are still being run, lower-quality input means lower-quality output. The GFS — one of the most widely used global models — has seen a noticeable drop in performance over the past year, particularly during high-impact storms.
“Over the past year, the GFS has dropped significantly in skill — especially for major events. That hurts not only the NWS but every app that relies on those outputs.”
— Vox Climate Report
Because apps typically rely on one or two models with no human oversight, this decline in accuracy can leave you with unreliable snow totals, missed onset timing, or unclear precipitation type changes — issues that hit snow contractors where it hurts.
Why Apps Fall Short
“Apps deliver model output — not insight. That’s where human interpretation makes the difference.”
Apps are built for general convenience, not operational decisions. They summarize raw model output in digestible icons and percentages — but they can’t tell you:
- Whether that “70% chance of snow” will actually stick to pavement
- If there’s a temperature inversion at 800mb that will cause mixing
- Whether marginal setups are more likely to bust high or low
In other words, apps don’t interpret — they just output.
What Professional Forecasting Does Differently
“Professional forecasters analyze atmospheric dynamics to provide usable insight — not just raw data.”
At NorCast Consulting, we believe better decisions come from better interpretation. We’re not just pushing out models. Our forecasts are human-led, impact-focused, and tailored to the needs of snow and ice professionals. It’s all about blending technology with meteorologist expertise and communication.
Here’s how that works in real terms:
Atmospheric Expertise
We read between the models, compare ensembles, analyze skew-T diagrams, and track regional patterns. That means you get more than a number — you get confidence levels, risk assessments, and timeline projections.
Operational Translation
We don’t just say “snow likely.” We’ll tell you:
- When to pre-treat vs wait
- If slushy snow is more likely than powder
- When a dry slot might reduce totals
- Whether refreeze risk is high after a warm push
Real-Time Human Support
Storms evolve. So do our forecasts. We’re here when conditions change, and we work directly with contractors during storms to keep you informed — not scrambling.
Why It Matters More Than Ever
Cuts to data collection may seem like a back-end problem. But if you rely on apps or generalized public forecasts, the degradation has already reached you. In a world of tighter budgets, tighter margins, and growing client expectations, you can’t afford to be reactive.
Professional forecasting gives you clarity, control, and confidence. You know what’s coming, when it’s coming, and how to prepare — no second-guessing required.
At NorCast, we’ve supported snow contractors across the U.S. since 2014. We understand your workflow because we’ve grown with this industry. And as long-time Snow Plow News partners, we’re proud to help you stay ahead of the storm — not behind it.
Final Word
Weather models are only as good as the data that feeds them. With data gaps growing, interpretation becomes everything.
The weather may be out of your hands. But your response? That’s entirely in your control — with the right partner.
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